Bitcoin Price Prediction Using Logarithmic Regression



Check out the original video from November 2019:

I think it is time for an update! Can we use Bitcoin logarithmic regression to dubiously speculate on the future market cycle peak of Bitcoin? Can we use prior ratios to predict types of returns? In this video, we discuss a potential peak for Bitcoin based on all sorts of prior data. I try to give reasons for why I think certain things are likely/unlikely to play out, and then also challenge that way of thinking. Where do you think the price of Bitcoin is headed? Let me know in the comments!

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Disclaimer: The information presented within this video is NOT financial advice.

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46 thoughts on “Bitcoin Price Prediction Using Logarithmic Regression

  • January 15, 2022 at 2:03 am
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    This video is scary to watch right now

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  • January 15, 2022 at 2:03 am
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    Words can't explain, at least not in our current awareness & abilities, how grateful we are to you for this video! Blessings dear man!

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  • January 15, 2022 at 2:03 am
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    You so rock 'n' Roll Ben even if your emotions don't show it. It's so obvious to us that you get it & this just resonates with us soooooo much! Thankyou so much for all your insights, your Conservative attitude you integrity, transparency & willingness to reflect, question & explain your shifting of opinions & growth. Your energies teach our littlelons so much that the adult one's in us can't reach & eternally grateful for this. Blessings to you dear man & a very merry Christmas to you & your family. Namaste xx

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  • January 15, 2022 at 2:03 am
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    I think this is the best tecnical prediction there could be for bitcoin price. Great supporting stats..142k looks the most likely bitcoin high this cycle by Jan/Feb.22. Can you also make such video on Eth?

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  • January 15, 2022 at 2:03 am
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    <.<Bitcoin has seen some incredible strength throughout the past couple of weeks, with the confluence of a strong market structure and an undercurrent of positive developments both helping to drive it higher. Stick with BTC/ETH/SHIBA INU as much as you can guys, just remember where it's going and don't facilitate this dream into becoming a nightmare. This strength has led BTC above $65k – which is proving to be a crucial resistance level for the cryptocurrency. Most newbies usually undermine and neglect the importance of technical analysis with regards to trading. I advise any newbies/traders to buy the dip for traders who are still wondering to enter the market or old time traders who are holders to seek help from not just any trader but an established trading expert with at least 96% trade accuracy. I underwent series of trading loses I'd best not talk about before I was introduced to trading analyst Mr Paulson Dmitriev. My contact with him has been the Pinnacle of this year for me, Under his careful guide and his signal service I've been able to recover my losses and even grow my trading portfolio massively from 1.3 BTC to 8 BTC in just 5 weeks. I will advice traders esp newbies to have orientation of trading before they involve in it. Mr Paulson 's makes you learn daily while you make profit with his signals, Here his official GMail, paulsondmitriev @ gmail com, for more information or for financial advice regarding crypto investment>/////////////-///////////

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  • January 15, 2022 at 2:03 am
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    does this analysis for eth exist somewhere?

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  • January 15, 2022 at 2:03 am
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    Can you do the same for Cardano?

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  • January 15, 2022 at 2:03 am
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    this is some really great analysis, but if u factor the adoption curve, inflation, and you understand relativity, diminishing returns are true in real terms, not in the relative fiat terms. this cycle may make you doubt the validity of the law of diminishing returns. but it is indeed true, you just need a real term denominator.

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  • January 15, 2022 at 2:03 am
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    Virgin soyboys came for the price forecast. Gigachads came for the maths and analysis

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  • January 15, 2022 at 2:03 am
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    What if we don't have a market cycle top? Could we just keep having a series of April-like tops that are not market cycle tops?? I've been in since 2017 and I didn't see this kind of adoption that's spread out across more spaces like non-fungible tokens and Defi. We are far more mainstream now than we were before so what if this is the threshold from cycle to steady adoption?

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  • January 15, 2022 at 2:03 am
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    Ah this guy again. When ben's face shows up on my youtube feed, i know crypto is waking up and im about to make some money

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  • January 15, 2022 at 2:03 am
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    15:15 yeah, plan b says 135k in dec…he could be off by 1% to 5% though

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  • January 15, 2022 at 2:03 am
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    plan b says march 2022…

    19:09 the crypto winters also seem to last longer though

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  • January 15, 2022 at 2:03 am
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    if you got $.05 every time Benjamin said the phrase "market cycle peak" you'd be rich😆

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  • January 15, 2022 at 2:03 am
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    The trouble with bitcoin is it's limited in growth potential because of it's energy wastage. It's carbon footprint doesn't float any boats for fund managers and it's more of a hobby coin. Solona, ADA, Cosmos etc… they have far greater possibilities and are offer smart contracts.

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  • January 15, 2022 at 2:03 am
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    Hey Ben, it seems you have a little mistake at your price goal. You should add to it another 100% since 724% is just the increase itself. So you should add another 19,499 to the 141,173 (which represents the increase alone) which turns it into 160,672$.

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  • January 15, 2022 at 2:03 am
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    the guy is so bullish on Bitcoin he sold all of his furniture to buy more btc

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  • January 15, 2022 at 2:03 am
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    I sincerely hope most Bitcoin holders have gotten the memo and sold most or all of their holdings. It seems abundantly obvious (forget technical analysis, etc., for a moment) what has happened. As BTC approached the 65K level earlier this year, the pool of retail speculators dried up- there simply weren't more traders willing to invest in a 100% virtual speculation game, so the price stalled at that level. Then the cycle began, where the whales come in at about 45K and sell at about 60K. Very obvious. There's a very small chance BTC will exceed 65K, and a far greater probability it will see 20K levels over the next 6 months. Good luck all.

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  • January 15, 2022 at 2:03 am
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    Skip to 4:20 to get right to the analysis.

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  • January 15, 2022 at 2:03 am
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    I dont understand what the hell is halving

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  • January 15, 2022 at 2:03 am
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    I think this is all very interesting and no doubt is of heuristic value but I can't help feeling it's a bit like reading tea leaves. On the other if my father was a woman he would be my mother. Saying that, I'm more likely to listen to people such as Benjamin than try and predict for myself.

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  • January 15, 2022 at 2:03 am
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    Honestly I hope it crashes sooner rather than later because that means the floor will be lower and be a cheaper accumulation phase

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  • January 15, 2022 at 2:03 am
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    Hello Benjamin, thanks a lot for the analysis. One thing : if 724% represents the increase it means that your estamation is 160,672$ for the top (724/100*19,499 + 19,499).

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  • January 15, 2022 at 2:03 am
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    Simple:
    1) buy when it's down -80%
    2) never sell

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  • January 15, 2022 at 2:03 am
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    Ben; as you are seeing the subsequent peaks lengthen in terms of time, why not apply a logarithm to the x-axis? importantly adding an offset so that the distance between years is constant? the log scale then on the x-axis would inform when the peak might occur independent of what the value may be.

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  • January 15, 2022 at 2:03 am
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    I think alot of crypto guys forget – If BTC hits 150k or 500k, what will the price of a loaf of bread be? What will the price of a gallon of gas be? If BTC 2.5X and goes to 141k but a gallon of gas is 7.5 dollars – you made no real gain – meanwhile your average American is getting poor.

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  • January 15, 2022 at 2:03 am
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    Each top we fall two of the colored rising lines, so why would we rise 2 now all of a sudden?

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  • January 15, 2022 at 2:03 am
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    5 yrs later u hear him say btc trades at 61k $ abd u feel like thats cheap

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  • January 15, 2022 at 2:03 am
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    of course, it will gain less the higher the market gets. But the past does not always indicate the future. I sold at 63k and I am short at the moment.

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  • January 15, 2022 at 2:03 am
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    Just clicked "Subscribe"… I like your method waaaaay way more than moon guys out there… 😉

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  • January 15, 2022 at 2:03 am
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    you should use more of a gradient. 125k is max, 100k is minimum, i think this is a generous range that one could count on. i do not trade bitcoins though 🙂

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  • January 15, 2022 at 2:03 am
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    Very interesting as always. However, if the cycle increases a smaller amount and this pattern gets prolonged over time, the bull markets would end up getting shorter and shorter, which would not make sense to me. My time horizon is the beginning of February. The way I reached that conclusion is, instead of adding the same amount of time the past cycle increased, I calculated the percentage of time it got prolonged compared with the previous one, and then added the same percentage to the total amount of the past one. For me personally make more sense, although I might be missing something as I am not a professional

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  • January 15, 2022 at 2:03 am
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    I think btc hit at least 200k $ and bottom of next bear is around 50к $ .

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  • January 15, 2022 at 2:03 am
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    Ben, hi, I'm from Russia, I've been watching you for a long time, but I don't understand English. Still, what do you think the average price of the peak of this cycle will be, and approximately how much time do we have?

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  • January 15, 2022 at 2:03 am
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    Ben, how does this analysis change when factoring in bitcoin's price against m2 money supply? Technically the cycle hasn't lengthened yet? But I assume the timing on the prior cycles would be different as well?

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  • January 15, 2022 at 2:03 am
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    What happened to the second top (yellow circle) for the 2nd cycle?

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  • January 15, 2022 at 2:03 am
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    How did I only get recommended this channel now 😭

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  • January 15, 2022 at 2:03 am
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    How about you look at the ratio between the light blue rectangle and the yellow one and then use this ratio th create the green one. Then we're gonna have a manic run very soon. The aftermath of the 263 top looks quite similar to the one now. There it also went up up very fast. And the up hick now to 67k is timed to the end of the light blue now.

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  • January 15, 2022 at 2:03 am
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    What do you buy when you sell Bitcoin?

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  • January 15, 2022 at 2:03 am
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    You ae on to something, Next measure the time between cycles, I am convinced cycle length will grow by about 4% in time. Which means one day we will talk about Bitcoin not having a 4 year cycle but 5 maybe 30-40 years from now. Eventually it goes to 6 and 7 and 8…………

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  • January 15, 2022 at 2:03 am
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    What are the fundamentals driving diminishing returns?

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  • January 15, 2022 at 2:03 am
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    This market cycle will run through next April

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  • January 15, 2022 at 2:03 am
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    in short , he said that market cycle peak would be between 110K to 300k (29:28)

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